If you are shopping for a diesel ute or a big 4WD, you may have heard that prices could rise from 2027 because of Australia's new vehicle emissions rules. Toyota, Nissan and Mitsubishi have all indicated that price rises on some diesel models cannot be ruled out as the targets tighten. That has left many buyers asking a simple question: should I buy a Toyota HiLux, Ford Ranger or Toyota LandCruiser Prado now, or wait?
This guide explains the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) in plain English, using the official targets and penalty rules published by the Australian Government. It shows what the penalty could mean per vehicle, which models are most exposed, what lower emission alternatives cost, and how to decide whether to buy now. One point up front: no brand has confirmed a price rise caused by NVES. Any increase is a possibility, not a certainty.
The short answer
Ute and 4WD prices could rise from 2027, but nothing is confirmed. The rules put the cost on car companies, not buyers. Each brand decides whether to absorb it, offset it with cleaner models and credits, or pass some of it on through prices. If you need a vehicle now and find a good deal, waiting for a price rise that may never happen is rarely worth it. If you can wait and are open to a hybrid or plug-in hybrid, the market is moving quickly in your favour.
What is the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard?
The NVES is a federal law, the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard Act 2024. It sets a limit on the average carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, measured in grams per kilometre, of the new light vehicles each car company supplies in Australia. Car companies have had to comply since 1 July 2025. The first performance period ran from 1 July to 31 December 2025, and each period after that runs for a calendar year.
The standard splits vehicles into two groups. Type 1 covers passenger cars and most SUVs. Type 2 covers utes, vans and heavy off-road vehicles, which is where diesel utes and some body on frame 4WD wagons sit. Type 2 has a higher, easier target than Type 1, but it still tightens every year.
The rules apply to a company's whole fleet, not to each car. A brand that sells plenty of hybrids, plug-in hybrids or EVs can balance out high emitting diesels. Each vehicle's target is also adjusted for its mass, so heavier vehicles get a slightly higher target than the headline figure.
Type 2 targets for utes and vans
These are the headline limits set in the Act and published by the NVES Regulator, in grams of CO2 per kilometre:
Year | Type 1 (cars and SUVs) | Type 2 (utes, vans, heavy off-road) | Type 2 change on previous year |
|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 141 g/km | 210 g/km | First year |
2026 | 117 g/km | 180 g/km | 30 g/km lower |
2027 | 92 g/km | 150 g/km | 30 g/km lower |
2028 | 68 g/km | 122 g/km | 28 g/km lower |
2029 | 58 g/km | 110 g/km | 12 g/km lower |
Between 2025 and 2027 the Type 2 limit falls from 210 to 150 g/km, a cut of almost 30 per cent. By 2029 it reaches 110 g/km. Targets after 2029 will be set by the Transport Minister in a legislative instrument.
The first results are already out. The NVES Regulator published 2025 results on 18 February 2026. Across the market, Type 2 vehicles averaged 199 g/km against an average emissions target of 214 g/km, so the fleet as a whole beat the first year's target. The challenge is that the target drops by 60 g/km over the next two years.
How the penalty works, and what it means per vehicle
The penalty is not a tax charged on each car at the dealership. It is a charge on the car company if its fleet misses its target after credits are counted.
Each year, a brand's emissions above its targets, totalled across every vehicle it supplied, become an emissions value. If that value is above zero, the brand has two years to bring it back to zero using credits, called units, that it earns in other years or buys from other brands. Only what is left becomes its final emissions value. The NVES Regulator then issues an infringement notice for $50 per gram per kilometre of that final value. If a brand does not pay and the matter goes to court, the maximum penalty is $100 per g/km. The first final values, for 2025, will be issued from February 2028.
In practice, that works out to $50 for every g/km a vehicle is over its target, or up to $100 if the brand ends up in court. Here is what that looks like for an example diesel ute with official tailpipe emissions of 222 g/km, compared with the unadjusted headline limits:
Year | Type 2 headline limit | Grams over the limit | Penalty at $50 per g/km | Maximum court penalty at $100 per g/km |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 210 g/km | 12 g/km | $600 | $1,200 |
2026 | 180 g/km | 42 g/km | $2,100 | $4,200 |
2027 | 150 g/km | 72 g/km | $3,600 | $7,200 |
2028 | 122 g/km | 100 g/km | $5,000 | $10,000 |
2029 | 110 g/km | 112 g/km | $5,600 | $11,200 |
This is a simplified example. Real targets are adjusted for mass, so a heavy ute's own target is a little higher than the headline limit and its real exposure is a little lower. Brands can also offset diesel sales with cleaner models and credits, so most will pay far less than this, or nothing at all.
You may have seen figures of about $500 per vehicle now, rising to around $2,000 in 2027. Under the official $50 per g/km formula, those figures line up more closely with a ute about 10 g/km over the 2025 limit, and the same ute about 40 g/km over the 2026 limit, than with 2027. For a typical diesel ute, the official maths points to a larger potential gap from 2027 than those numbers suggest. That is exactly why brands with mostly diesel line ups are talking about prices.
What Toyota, Nissan and Mitsubishi have said
Toyota has indicated it cannot rule out price rises on diesel models such as the HiLux, Prado and LandCruiser as the targets tighten. Toyota sells a large number of diesel utes and 4WDs, but it also sells a very large number of hybrids, which earn credits that help balance the diesels. Toyota's official HiLux launch material focuses on its V-Active 48 volt technology and a battery electric HiLux, both of which lower fleet emissions.
Nissan and Mitsubishi have indicated similar concerns about the cost of meeting tighter Type 2 targets with diesel utes and 4WDs. Both are adding electrified models. We could not find an official Australian press release from any of these three brands that announces a price rise caused by NVES.
The bottom line is that no price rise has been confirmed. Brands have signalled the possibility, but each will make pricing decisions model by model, and those decisions also depend on exchange rates, shipping costs, competition and sales targets.
Which utes and 4WDs are most exposed?
The models most exposed are high selling diesel utes and body on frame 4WDs with no electrified option, especially from brands that sell few EVs or hybrids. This table shows current official starting prices and the tailpipe CO2 figures published in the Australian Government's Vehicle Emissions Star Rating, which is based on Green Vehicle Guide data.
Model | Official starting price | Government listed tailpipe CO2 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
From $33,990 before on-road costs (4x2 WorkMate single cab-chassis manual) | 209 g/km (HiLux utility auto rating) | Diesel on every grade, 48 volt V-Active on some | |
From $42,000 drive away (XL 4x2 2.0 diesel offer) | 222 g/km (Ranger Platinum 4WD auto rating) | Plug-in hybrid Ranger also available | |
Launched from $72,500 before on-road costs (GX) | 212 g/km (Prado wagon auto rating) | Diesel with 48 volt V-Active | |
Price on Toyota's website | 250 g/km (LandCruiser SUV auto rating) | Twin turbo diesel V6 | |
From $42,990 before on-road costs | Not checked | Diesel only at launch | |
Price on Nissan's website | Not checked | Plug-in hybrid version due in 2027 | |
Price on Mitsubishi's website | Not checked | Diesel | |
Price on Isuzu's website | Not checked | Diesel |
Government ratings cover a model family over several years, so the figure for the exact variant you buy may be different. Prado prices have changed since launch, so check Toyota's current price for your postcode.
Toyota HiLux
The Toyota HiLux is the most exposed nameplate simply because of how many Toyota sells. The new generation HiLux range launched in December 2025 with a 2.8 litre turbo diesel on every grade, producing 150 kW with 420 Nm in manual form or 500 Nm with the automatic.
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Toyota's official launch pricing runs from $33,990 before on-road costs for the 4x2 WorkMate single cab-chassis manual. Popular 4x4 double cab versions cost $59,490 for the SR pick-up with 48 volt V-Active, $65,990 for the SR5 V-Active automatic pick-up, and $71,990 for the Rogue and Rugged X.
V-Active adds an 8.5 kW, 65 Nm motor generator and a small lithium ion battery for smoother stop start and better fuel economy. It is a mild hybrid, so it lowers emissions a little but does not drive the wheels on electricity alone. Toyota has also confirmed a battery electric HiLux for 2026, aimed at fleet, mining and business buyers.
If you want a HiLux: buying a diesel now locks in today's price. If a rise does come, it is most likely on high selling diesel grades.
Ford Ranger
The Ford Ranger is one of Australia's top selling vehicles, with a large diesel range that includes 2.0 litre four cylinder and 3.0 litre V6 engines. The government rating for the Ranger Platinum 4WD auto lists 222 g/km, which is well above the 2026 and 2027 Type 2 limits.
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Ford currently advertises recommended drive away prices from $42,000 for the Ranger XL 4x2 2.0 diesel, $53,000 for the Black Edition 2.0 4x4, $60,000 for the Black Edition V6 4x4 and $73,000 for the Wolftrak V6. Ford also has a $4,000 fuel card offer on selected Ranger, Everest and F-150 models, and a new seven year warranty when you service with Ford dealers. Offers change, so check Ford's offers page before you buy.
Ford has a big advantage under NVES: it also sells a plug-in hybrid Ranger, which helps offset its diesels.
Toyota LandCruiser Prado
The Toyota LandCruiser Prado is a body on frame 4WD wagon with a 2.8 litre turbo diesel and V-Active 48 volt technology, producing 150 kW and 500 Nm with an eight speed automatic. It can tow 3,500 kg braked, which matters under NVES because heavy off-road vehicles that meet the Act's criteria are classed as Type 2.
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Toyota's official launch pricing in 2024 started at $72,500 before on-road costs for the GX, with the GXL at $79,990, VX at $87,400, Altitude at $92,700 and Kakadu at $99,990. Prices have changed since launch, so use Toyota's price page for your postcode to get the current figure. The government rating for the Prado wagon auto lists 212 g/km.
The bigger Toyota LandCruiser 300 is rated at 250 g/km, the highest of the models in this guide, so it is also exposed if Toyota decides to adjust pricing.
Lower emission alternatives
If you want to reduce your exposure to any future price rise, the most practical options are plug-in hybrid utes. They use far less fuel on official tests, earn credits for their brands, and are getting cheaper as competition grows.
Model | Official price | Key figures |
|---|---|---|
From $59,000 drive away | 2.3 litre turbo petrol plug-in hybrid, 11.8 kWh battery, up to 50 km electric range (NEDC), 3,500 kg towing | |
Ford Ranger PHEV Sport | From $66,000 drive away | 3.1 L/100 km combined |
Ford Ranger PHEV Wildtrak | From $70,000 drive away | Pro Power Onboard, up to 6.9 kW |
BYD Shark 6 Dynamic cab chassis | $55,900 before on-road costs | Plug-in hybrid, 321 kW |
BYD Shark 6 Premium | $57,900 before on-road costs | 321 kW, 2.0 L/100 km, 2,500 kg braked towing, 46 g/km government CO2 rating |
BYD Shark 6 Performance | $62,900 before on-road costs | 350 kW, 1.3 L/100 km WLTP, 3,500 kg braked towing |
GWM Cannon Alpha PHEV | Price on GWM's website | Hi4-T plug-in hybrid with low range transfer case |
Toyota HiLux V-Active | From $57,990 before on-road costs (SR double cab-chassis) | 48 volt mild hybrid diesel |
Prices are from each brand's official Australian website or price list. Fuel figures are official combined test figures and will be higher in real use, especially if you do not charge a plug-in hybrid. Our guide to using a plug-in hybrid without charging explains what happens to fuel use when you skip the plug.
Ford Ranger PHEV
The Ford Ranger PHEV, which Ford now calls the Ranger Hybrid, pairs a 2.3 litre turbo petrol engine with a 75 kW electric motor and an 11.8 kWh battery. Ford quotes up to 50 km of electric range on the NEDC test and 3.1 L/100 km combined.
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Crucially for ute buyers, it keeps full time 4WD, an 800 mm wading depth and 3,500 kg braked towing. Ford's current recommended drive away prices are $59,000 for the XL, $66,000 for the Sport and $70,000 for the Wildtrak. Pro Power Onboard can supply up to 6.9 kW for tools or a campsite.
Suits: buyers who want Ranger capability with much lower fuel use around town. Watch for: it costs more than a diesel Ranger, and fuel use rises on long trips once the battery is flat.
BYD Shark 6
The BYD Shark 6 is a plug-in hybrid dual cab ute with all wheel drive. BYD's configurator lists the Dynamic cab chassis at $55,900, the Premium at $57,900 and the Performance at $62,900.
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The Premium has 321 kW, an official 2.0 L/100 km and a combined driving range of 800 km on the NEDC cycle. It tows 2,500 kg braked. The Performance uses a 2.0 litre engine for 350 kW, 1.3 L/100 km on the WLTP test and 3,500 kg braked towing. The government rating lists the Shark 6 at 46 g/km, a fraction of a diesel ute's figure.
BYD is also running a $4,000 cashback offer on Shark 6 models ordered between 1 October and 21 December 2026 and delivered by 31 December 2026. Our guide to the BYD $4,000 cashback offer has the details, and our Shark 6 Performance vs Ranger PHEV comparison compares the two head to head.
Should you buy now or wait?
Buy now if:
You need a ute or 4WD for work or towing in the next six to twelve months.
You have found a strong drive away deal or a run out offer on a diesel model.
You want a diesel and there is no electrified version that meets your towing or off-road needs.
Consider waiting if:
Your current vehicle is reliable and you are open to a plug-in hybrid.
You want one of the electrified utes due soon, such as the Nissan Navara PHEV expected in 2027.
You mostly drive short trips and can charge at home, where a plug-in hybrid makes most sense.
Do not rush a purchase on the fear of a price rise alone. Brands can absorb costs, run offers and use credits, and the first penalties are not issued until 2028. A good deal today is worth more than a possible increase later. Whatever you choose, ask for an itemised drive away quote. Our guide to on-road costs, drive away vs list price shows what to check, and our October 2026 new car deals guide lists current offers.
The bottom line
The New Vehicle Efficiency Standard tightens the Type 2 target for utes and vans from 210 g/km in 2025 to 150 g/km in 2027 and 110 g/km in 2029. Under the official formula, a car company pays $50 per g/km of its final emissions value, up to $100 in court. For a typical diesel ute, that means the potential cost grows sharply from 2027, which is why Toyota, Nissan and Mitsubishi have indicated price rises are possible.
But no NVES price rise has been confirmed. If you need a HiLux, Ranger or Prado now, buy on the best deal available. If you can wait and your driving suits it, a plug-in hybrid ute like the Ranger PHEV or Shark 6 will cost less to run and is exactly the kind of vehicle the rules are designed to encourage.